If you can believe it, you can achieve it
I was brought up on a simple idea. If you can think it, and you can believe in it, it's achievable.
It came up on BrandonFromVegas's podcast. We were talking about young people and homeownership. Plenty of people work out what's realistic by looking at what's happened to the people nearby. And that got me thinking about what the numbers say on this.
The picture most of us carry is out of date
The typical first-time buyer in America is now 40 years old, an all-time high. The median repeat buyer is 62. The median buyer overall is 59.
Those numbers moved a lot over the years, and the picture in most people's heads didn't move with them. Buying a first home reads as a young person's milestone. It hasn't been one for a while, and the range around that middle is wide in both directions.
So not seeing it happen nearby says more about who happens to be nearby than about whether the thing can be done.
Somebody goes first
I bought a home before anyone else in my circle did. There wasn't much to it beyond deciding it was going to happen and then working at it for a while.
It did teach me something about the order of things, though. There's a first person in any group, and that person never got to watch it done. They believed it was possible and went at it, and everyone after them had an example. That's all going first is.
It's a good thing to carry.
The full conversation goes deeper on all of this. Watch it here.
Quick takes
What is the median age of a first-time home buyer?
40 years old, an all-time high, per NAR's 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. The median repeat buyer is 62 and the median buyer overall is 59.
Are first-time home buyers getting older?
Yes. The median age reached an all-time high of 40 in NAR's 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, and the first-time share fell to a record low of 21%, which NAR reports has contracted by 50% since 2007.
Do you have to see someone else do something before you can do it?
Somebody goes first in any group, and that person has no example to follow. Treating the absence of a nearby example as proof is circular, since the example only exists once somebody acts without one.
Who is Judd Hoffman?
Judd Hoffman is CEO and Co-Founder of Ethica AI, which builds AI-powered voice tools for real estate transaction workflows, backed by the California Association of REALTORS. He has nearly three decades of operating experience, including more than 15 years across real estate title, transactions, and technology.
Sources
- First-Time Home Buyer Share Falls to Historic Low of 21%, Median Age Rises to 40 (2025 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers): NAR press release, 4 November 2025, accompanying the 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, covering transactions between July 2024 and June 2025. Verified verbatim 2026-08-28: 'The share of first-time home buyers dropped to a record low of 21%, while the typical age of first-time buyers climbed to an all-time high of 40 years'; repeat buyers 'Median age: 62 years old'; all buyers 'Median age: 59 years old'; and from deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz, 'The share of first-time buyers in the market has contracted by 50% since 2007.'
- BrandonFromVegas: The Las Vegas real estate and homeownership podcast hosted by BrandonFromVegas, where this conversation was recorded. Judd Hoffman appeared as a guest for a full-length episode on homeownership and real estate.
- Judd Hoffman On You're Gonna Die A Renter: AI Will Change This Industry: The full hour-long episode this clip is drawn from, covering homeownership, belief, and what is actually changing in real estate.
- The Chasm Between A Generation And The Front Door: The companion clip from the same episode, on why the distance to a first home stopped looking like a staircase and started looking like a chasm, and why the spending everyone points at may be the receipt rather than the cause.
Transcript
159 words
You just said something that really resonated with me. It like hit a nerve. It was if I don't see it, it doesn't exist. So if none of my buddies are owning, I don't own. I was brought up if you can think it, if you can believe in it, and if you can think it, it's achievable. You had imagination. 100% and not even just imagination. I'm gonna own a home. Okay, internalize that. That's what drove, right? I don't care if anyone else did. I was the first one in my friend group to own a home. That's what I did. I worked hard at it. I didn't have to see it. I didn't have to see it. I'm asking you guys. Do you actually have to see something? It's an interesting thing you said in order to be achievable. I think you have to believe in it. Believe in it. You have to believe in it.
